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Comment by nabla9 | Hacker News Reader

31-Jan Initial GDPNow 2025:Q1 forecast was +2.9%.

Almost 6% drop in the estimate. Uncertainty about tariffs, etc. means nobody wants to invest. SM Manufacturing Index, and Construction spending sink.

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Can’t call a recession until we look back, I cannot imagine consumer spending is going to hold up under this stress. Consumer debt defaults are rapidly rising while prices are going up in anticipation of tariffs. Something is going to break.

(70% of the economy is consumer spending, 80% of employment is in services)

If you look at the components of their model:

  28-Mar Personal income & outlays -2.8%
   7-Mar Retail trade: -2.1%

Tourism is gonna be hit. Education is gonna be hit (especially if the rumors that the US is canceling hundreds of student visas as we speak for crimes such as liking certain tweets). Exports are gonna be hit thanks to tariffs in raw materials and retaliatory tariffs by other countries. Government sector jobs will be hit. Retail will be hit due to tariffs.

We are already seeing a reversal in sentiment and none of these impacts have actually been felt yet.

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