Cognition explain why we dramatically overestimate the size of minority groups | Hacker News Reader

Cognition explain why we dramatically overestimate the size of minority groups

pnas.org

12 pointsAnon8415 comments

Worldwide problem. Interesting to set this against our inability to deal with non-linear situations except very specific ones like catching balls which have a linear component (horizontal distance) -and our inability to manage risk. Flight risk vs car risk vs train risk, and how it affects peoples stated beliefs of risk.

I do think we have a crude ALU arithmetic engine, and it can compute zero, one two lots, and compare this bigger than that but when it comes to QUANTIFY it does wildly different things.

Also, unrelated, "a few" vs "a dozen" vs "many" vs "several" is an interesting cultural difference. (yes, even a dozen which is a specific amount, can be quantified by some as 10-13)

even more, there are some only locally used, but known much wide spreaded, quantifyers, like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muggeseggele

Trans people are less than 0.5% of the US and somehow a certain group of people have been convinced that they are taking over the country.

> Our results call for researchers, journalists, and pundits alike to reconsider how to interpret misperceptions about the demographic structure of society.

They are missing that this mischaracterization is very deliberate and meant to fearmonger.

Even worse, when *those same people* finally figure out that there aren't many trans people in the first place, rather than thinking "oh should be easy to accommodate, then", they instead say "exactly, so we shouldn't have to care about them. They should just go away / be quiet / stop asking 'the whole world' to change for them."

At the end of the day, everything is just an excuse for people like that to either:

  - hate
  - not do any internal searching that will reveal they're the ones
    that need to change
  - continue to hide in their self-hating shame
    (see: gay porn viewing rates in places with wildly lower, admitted-LGBTQ+ 
     people)

I think it is true across political lines and sides of the issues.

IMO, a big part of it is also driven by attempts to be inclusive in media and educational representation. You get your TV and movies with the obligatory black, gay, and trans characters. If media reflected real life demographics, most of these wouldnt exist. Blacks are 12% of the US population, gays are ~5%, and trans people are ~1% depending on the survey. When surveyed, people think they are closer to 40%, 25%, and 20% of the population because they are so often overrepresented.

I would be absolutely ecstatic if 1% of all movie, TV video game, and book characters were openly trans.

It would be a gigantic increase over the actual number.

Same, I think I can name one canonically trans character from a piece of media I've watched recently? And as a trans person myself, I'm probably more likely than most to pay attention when a trans character is introduced.

The way you dropped “blacks” gives me a really big hint into how you see the world :)

Likewise, consider your virtue signaled ;)

Maybe it does not make any sense because it's a strawman ;)

Something doesn't need to be a large part of something to be forced upon a larger whole. If anything being a small part but being blown up disproportionately can explain exactly such reactions especially if it targets the most vulnerable groups.

It's a cycle. You pick on a vulnerable group and generally good people will push back and stand up for them and now the group seems bigger than it actually is so even more people will push back and it just goes back and forth.

There is a difference between defending something and trying to push it agressively and overt towards vulnerable groups such are children and mentally ill.

There is a disagreement on who the vulnerable groups are in this situation. I know many people who would say trans people as a whole are mentally ill.

Indeed. In a sane world someone thinking they are a dragon is either a child who at some point grows out of it or mentally ill who needs treatment.

In current year both are thrown together where sane(?) grown adults enable both of them because acceptance and subversion at any cost is the only way to fully end the "hate".

You misunderstood my position so let me put it this way. Putting aside the "save the children" argument, I don't care what a grown adult does and how they feel about themselves. The amount of resources put towards demonizing trans people is if nothing else, an incredible waste of time and money. And adults who live life acting like dragons exist, they are also not bothering anyone so I just leave them alone.

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