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Comment by HPsquared | Hacker News Reader

Never mind cost/time estimates, most software projects barely have anything resembling blueprints, bill of materials or even size estimates at the start of the project. It's hard to estimate something if you don't even know how big it'll be, or what shape.

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> most software projects barely have anything resembling blueprints, bill of materials or even size estimates at the start of the project

Producing that is the software project. Once you've delivered those things, the compiler will carry out the construction. I am sure you can estimate how long the compiler will take with reasonable accuracy.

So, you're right, construction isn't the greatest analogy.

>I am sure you can estimate how long the compiler will take with reasonable accuracy.

I'm sure you can't unless you have a pretty good idea of the size and shape of the project.

Do the size and shape of your deliverables magically change without warning? Mine never have.

Maybe you've lost it all in a hard drive crash? But in that case it is really easy to figure out how long it will take when you have nothing to compile.

You've never ended up with significantly more or fewer deliverables at the end of the project than were expected at the start? You've never had a project scrapped 50% (or 100%) of the way through? You've never thought to yourself "just a smidge of boost can't be too hard on the compile time" only to regret it for the next few years?

I fail to see the significance of the past here. Per the comment in question, the deliverables have already been delivered. The size and shape is known. All that is left to do is to get shovels in the ground (i.e. compile it).

Ha. Well, most builds take 20 minutes. So any release will take approximately 20 minutes once we get the specification written out. Will be in touch in 1 month to 3 years.

The ease and seemingly no-cost nature of small changes in software development, causes scope creep that would have huge costs in construction.

Changing the color of a door will cost you a few hundred dollars or less. Changing all the windows may cost tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars. Rotating the foundation five degrees may be more expensive than building a new building.

Not all changes are equally huge in construction.

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