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Comment by alephnerd | Hacker News Reader

> And I assume Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh and other countries will hurt for other good that are made cheaply there

Vietnam and Bangladesh would hurt American consumers (clothes). Cambodia not really.

Silver lining, Brazil and Colombia (edit: and the rest of Latin America) are kept at baseline, and Philippines is now the lowest tariff developing Asian economy.

We'll probably see a significant amount of capital returning to Philippines (who saw de-industrialization when South Korea signed their FTA with Vietnam).

> Are those in addition to existing tariffs?

Yes (Edit: not sure now, I'm hearing some say they include the 2017 tariff regime of flat 10% - smh shows how this was just a political ploy that answers for such a critical question are mixed)

(Edit 2: was right initially - thanks u/inverted_flag)

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So 54% on China, and this might not be the end of it as countries will retaliate and Trump might increase them even further.

> as countries will retaliate

Depends on the country. India is negotiating a Bilateral Trade Agreement by mid-2025, Vietnam has sent a trade delegation to DC to negotiate as we speak, and tariffs on Colombia, Brazil, Philippines, and Turkiye are the lowest for middle income countries.

The harshest pain will be felt by Cambodia and Vietnam, because both are part of ASEAN like Philippines and share similar trade partners (Japan, SK), Bangladesh as they have an FTA and significant capital from India, and China as EU (looking at you Poland and Czechia), Turkiye, Japan, SK, and India are now cost competitive

You'll be seeing more "Made in Philippines", "Made in Colombia" "Made in Turkiye", "Made in Brazil", and "Made in India" shirts, auto parts, and assembled electronics now.

We might also see a return of Malaysia in the semiconductor industry, as they are now cheaper than Taiwan - great for whoever buys Intel Foundry Services (Penang reax only)

As soon as Malaysia gets anywhere near a significant capacity of semiconductor manufacturing they’ll also get increased tariffs. Or, the the tariffs will end and it will return to Taiwan.

Stability is necessary for any big shifts to be worth taking.

> As soon as Malaysia gets anywhere near a significant capacity of semiconductor manufacturing

You mean since 1971 when Intel opened their OSAT in Penang?

Malaysia was THE hub for electronics manufacturing until 20 years ago when China became cheaper.

In fact, it was the same businessmen in the Penang electronics industry who largely invested in China's electronics industry.

Also, semiconductors are exempted so my whole thread is moot about that. Electronics manufacturing though will return (and already started due to most companies China+1 strategy).

But will investors make any long term decision given the unreliability of the US administration? Who would invest in manufacturing in a country if the tariffs could be gone tomorrow again?

The examples I listed are countries where manufacturers ALREADY invested in capacity well before this happened.

Supply chains have gotten way more resilient after Zero COVID in China and Vietnam caused a lot of supply chain craziness.

Seems unlikely, at least in the near term. These are LARGE amounts of good to be shifting, and they don't shift overnight. Plus, if the tariffs calculations are really based on trade imbalance, who's to say Columbia won't get slapped with more tariffs as soon as they start making and exporting more goods to the US. Pretty risky to be opening up a bunch of factories only to be tariffed to death right after.

> These are LARGE amounts of good to be shifting, and they don't shift overnight

Hence I listed countries where manufacturing in those industries was significant until 10-15 years ago or where investment has largely moved beforehand.

> Yes (Edit: not sure now, I'm hearing some say they include the 2017 tariff regime of flat 10% - smh shows how this was just a political ploy that answers for such a critical question are mixed)

https://xcancel.com/EamonJavers/status/1907540655871521264#m

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