Interesting, but I don’t see it this way at all. The west talked Ukraine into giving up their nukes and said we’ll keep you safe. All that without NATO. But as time has ebbed, and Russia meddling in eastern Ukraine went largely ignored by the west, Russia grew emboldened and decided it could just invest in a history rewrite, an airing of past grievances, and an invasion.
If Ukraine had said “fuck no” from day one, “we’re keeping our stuff, we don’t trust any of you long term at that level”, it would be in interesting world we live in.
This narrative that NATO provoked Russia into this is non sequitur. A gaslight of grandeur.