> If it is, your new license doesn't matter, they may use it. If it isn't, your new license doesn't matter, they're lready acting illegally. Is this argument wrong?

Well, yes. "It hasn't been tried in court yet" is not the same as "Precedent says this is explicitly allowed".

Add in the fact that the main AI players are negotiating commercial agreements to use publicly available content from the main publishing corporations tells you everything you need to know about how they think the lawsuits are going to turn out.

From the PoV of the main AI companies, they've already indicated that they know what the outcome is going to be.