Ask HN: Seveneves < Asteroid 2024 YR4

1 pointynac1 comment

Anyone want to share their opinion (backed by knowledge or not) on the probable effects of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the moon - and - whether Stephenson's /Seveneves/ is possible?

EarthSky: Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 3.8% chance of hitting the moon

https://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2024-yr4-odds-hit-earth-torino-scale-2032/

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Yawn. IIRC in Seveneves an 'unknown agent' caused the moon to shatter. I dunno even what it was exactly? Primordial Black hole?

Anyway, this thing is not bigger than a 10-storey building, according to latest information, as the article said.

Given the nearly infinite amount of impact craters of all sorts on the moon, while it is still unshattered, I guesstimate with my wet thumb and divining dick held into the winds of probability, that any Seveneves scenario is highly unlikely.

Except if the composition of that thing would be mainly 'Shatterium', but again, why?

So stop hyperventilating, relax, and maybe enjoy some fireworks in the future.

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