On Tuesday, a study in The Lancet estimated that suspending PEPFAR could lead to about one million new H.I.V. infections by 2030 and could lead to nearly 500,000 AIDS deaths among children and the orphaning of 2.8 million more.
Here's details of the Lancet article referenced:
-- Cluver et al. 20205. Protecting Africa's children from extreme risk: a runway of sustainability for PEPFAR programmes. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
> or are awaiting reassignment
> These maternal health programs are still funded by the President’s Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR.
So the money is still there, so are at least some of the staff, and they're doing a reorg. It doesn't look like they're shutting down the program.
But without personnel to manage the initiatives or to disburse the money, it’s not clear how the work will continue.
A simple consolidation of program offices doesn't seem like the worst idea in the world and it (along with other relatively benign scenarios) fit with what's been observed.
Based on past actions I think the appropriate Bayesian prior for pretty much all such public health efforts is now "they've intentionally broken it" until proven otherwise. I'm happy to update my prior if evidence to the contrary comes to light.
... when the pharma companies is infecting their mothers and fathers in the name of science.