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I've liked some of Ed's previous writing, but this is a craaaazy statement: "The Future of Generative AI Rests On OpenAI".

OpenAI is an over-hyped, over-priced, and under-performing AI company. Fortunately, the underlying LLM/transformer technology is real and valuable and not at all dependent on OpenAI. It would be good to deflate some of the hype around OpenAI and other non-viable companies.

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You can adjust he headline like this: "The Future of Generative AI (Market) Rests On OpenAI", then it would be more precise. Basically - if OAI crashes, then it will take down all competitors, like bowling pins. No one will erase existing NN software from the hard drives of course.

That's a good way to think of it. Google, Microsoft, and Adobe will be fine. Not sure where Anthropic would sort out in an OAI crash scenario.

Could you explain how exactly they're under-performing?

o1-pro at $200/month isn't holding up very well compared to Gemini 2.5 Pro at $20/month, for instance. It offers similar benchmark performance at perhaps 10% of the speed.

I agree some of their models are losing ground, but blanketing Open AI overall as an overhyped underperforming company because of that is just silly.

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