Last September I used ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude in combination to write a complex piece of code from scratch. It took four hours and I had to be very actively involved. A week ago o3 solved it on its own, at least the Python version ran as-is, but the Common Lisp version needed some tweaking (maybe 5 minutes of my time).
This is exponential improvement and it is not so much the base LLMs getting better, rather it is: familiarity with me (chat history) and much better tool use.
I may be be incorrect, but I think improvements in very long user event and interaction context, increasingly intelligent tool use, perhaps some form of RL to develop per-user policies for improving incorrect tool use, and increasingly good base LLMs will get us to a place that in the domain of digital knowledge work where we will have personal agents that are AGI for a huge range of use cases.