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Comment by Analemma_ | Hacker News Reader

Doubtful. The trucking industry has been screaming for years that they can’t find enough people, almost every 18-wheeler I see on the highway has a “we’re hiring” ad on it, and so on. This is automation coming in to replace humans who are willfully exiting.

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They are hiring, but the reason they can't find people isn't because there aren't people out there willing to do the job if it's fairly compensated. The problem is that trucking has lost a ton of upside over the last few decades, particularly after the Motor Carrier Act of 1980. Drivers are often paid per mile instead of per hour, which means long unpaid periods waiting for loads or stuck in traffic.

So as usual, "we can't find people" is code for "we tried to exploit the workers until they bled and for some reason we can't figure out, they went elsewhere."

Bingo. "No one wants to work [for a wage they can't live off of with pitiful benefits] anymore!"

It's an incredibly dangerous job, both in terms of chronic health and acute risk.

Since COVID happened until this year I would have told you "we can't find people" too, but this year the applications have flooded in. So at least they'll come crawling back eventually.

You're citing a 45 year old law as the reason why, say 35 years in the future, it leads to notable shortages of people who want to be truck drivers?

Doesn't hold water for me. Do you have some specific idea about how this law only had this effect decades after it passed?

I've been hearing about the truck driver shortage for > 30 years. Back then it may have been more local, though. Places like North Dakota have been short of drivers for at least 30 years.

The Motor Carrier Act of 1980 deregulated the industry, which led to a sharp increase in competition among carriers. Over time, this pushed down freight rates and put pressure on companies to cut costs at the expense of drivers. Many drivers are now classified as independent contractors rather than employees, meaning no benefits or wage protections.

Obviously this also happened against the background of a broader trend towards deregulation that proceeded under Reagan, so it's not just that act.

Regardless of the pay, I just can't imagine people really being excited to drive all day alone. I hate driving and I do it as little as possible. People like to be around other people when they work too.

To each their own. I’m not a driver either but I could see how trucker life harkens back to the American mythos of the solitary pioneer calling their own shots and working hard as they see fit.

Modern trucking is nothing like that, and often they are independent contractors in name only, driving someone else’s truck and being evaluated against strict performance criteria.

Walmart and similar employers have no trouble finding drivers. Decent pay, benefits and schedules makes it easy.

Walmart is still hiring drivers, though.

With 14,000 drivers there's going to be continuous turnover.

Edit: Also, Wal-mart's standards are incredibly high -- several years of clean driving experience. Most commercial truck drivers do not meet those standards. Despite the high standards, they still readily fill their positions. If they were having troubles, they'd lower their standards.

There is also just turn over, from my understanding from a former co-worker who had a kid go into truck driving, that truck drivers very rarely stay at the same company long term. New drivers get their training paid for and have an obligation to fill (ex walmart pays for training and pays you while you do it, but you have a 2-3 year obligation to them). Once they do that, they move on to another company. I am assuming for better pay and benefits. And even then, swapping companies is pretty common. Then also a good number stack enough money to buy their own truck and contract. I had a neighbor growing up who owned his own semi and worked on contract.

That's the rule, but AFAICT Wal-Mart is the exception to the rule. They don't train anybody without years of loyalty to the company, I don't think they have obligations. It's the dream job for most truckers from what I hear, and once you get in you don't leave. Wal-Mart pays a solid 6 figures with great home time. You can make more than that with your own truck, but it's hard.

I'm sure it's like any job -- everything else can be great, but if you get stuck with a bad boss it can make you absolutely miserable and drive you out.

UPS, too. I knew a couple OTRs who made 150k 2 decades ago. Not sure if they've kept up with inflation, but it was great money at the time.

Of course, they had people fighting for those jobs, and from what I heard, about the only way to get one was to know somebody on the inside.

Up your pay, give them benefits, and the people will come. This isn't hard to figure out.

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