"The increase in consumption exactly cancels out the fall in net exports"

The increase in consumption does not happen at the same time as the fall in net exports.

Imports have increased in advance of tariffs. The imports are happening before the consumption. The imports that happen before the consumption of those imports subtract from GDP.

Yes that is a reason GDP might fall. In this quarter, if tariffs aren't revoked, we will consume the imports that happened to front run the tariffs. That will increase GDP in this quarter.

Noah Smith is not stupid. Noah Smith knows this. The questions for me are "Given that Noah Smith knows this, why does he write the article he does" and "Given that Noah Smith knows this, why would anyone rely on Noah Smith for their economic news". That's what I'm curious about.