I believe that currently, the biggest problem in mobile is discovery. I can't remember what problems were prevalent in 1999 but it could have been discovery on the web as well. If you're a startup, life is going to suck for you developing on mobile. You have a name recognition problem on top of developing on a platform where discovery is inherently broken. It will be tough to get those organic installs because on Apple, those are driven largely in part to your placement in the rankings, and there's less to do with SEO on the App Store as there is on Google. So I think success on mobile can be had in only a finite number of ways:
1) You buy your way to the top and hope your customer LTV > acquisition costs (See all mobile games)
2) You spam the hell out of your users on other distribution platforms (SocialCam)
3) You're lucky and you develop a truly great product that thrives on mobile (WhatsApp, Camera+)
4) You can succeed with mobile being a utility, but not the essence of your business (Uber).