Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2025: US tariff shortages, military policing

- Shortages of some goods expected in the US starting later this month, because of tariffs.

- The power outage on the Iberian Peninsula was the worst in Europe since 2003, and Europe may have been close to a more widespread blackout.

- Trump wants to involve the military in policing within the US.

- Negotiations between the US and Iran over its nuclear weapons program have stalled.

- Microsoft will host xAI’s Grok model in its cloud service, in a move to reduce Microsoft’s dependency on OpenAI.

- Gaza is running out of food, and the UN warns of famine.

- India-Pakistan tensions remain high.

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Because imports are slowing, especially from China, shortages of some imported goods are expected to become noticeable in the coming weeks and to become substantial around August. If tariffs continue, some of these shortages may become pronounced; prices will increase dramatically for other goods. We recommend that those in the US consider buying imported goods before shortages and large price increases arrive.

Forecasters also discussed the possibility of shortages caused merely by self-fulfilling prophecy. For instance, the majority of toilet paper for US consumption is produced domestically, and so, one might naïvely think that as shelves start to empty of other products, toilet paper inventories will not be affected. However, shelves might empty of some products simply because people expect them to, even of products that are not substantially affected by tariffs.

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