It still cannot reason, which is the only thing useful a dev actually does. So, sorry, but I still dont feel threatened
Try disproving your own theory. Can you craft a problem that requires reasoning that an LLM can solve?
You should feel threatened. Maybe they missed this time, but they're shooting at you, and will keep shooting at you.
Not even joking here. If that’s the bar for “reasoning” AI has already beat it.
But that being said, I would say the trendline is the same. LLMs were just an exponential and existential jump in progress that dwarfed anything in the last 15 years. The inevitable slow down after the blip just makes you feel as if it's become much shallower. But in reality, it's the same, and we'll have more and more break throughs.
Obviously the trendline points to the most probable outcome. If you HAVE to bet, bet on probability. It's the most reasonable answer.
Probability can help predict things with enough instances of an event — statistics are only a small part of how we establish a probability of a future event, and a core ingredient of even that small part is having a sufficiently representative sample (which "trendlines" usually don't).
Eg. you can get statistics for all the winning lottery tickets from the last 5 years — that won't help you predict the next one.
Stop confusing the two.
No such pattern exists for the lottery.
Stop being stupid.