Reality is the Tesla product in this space hasn’t advanced in a decade. They hit a wall. They have promised that the next big thing is just over the next hill, but like the Roadster, hasn’t quite arrived yet.
It’s getting better. Slowly, but surely.
The problem with Teslas is given the deficient sensor suite Musk has insisted on, they can't be programmed to not do things, like not run though a picture of a road like Wile E Coyote.
Given how quickly things are changing, I don’t think it’s useful to say iPhones are crap and always will be because you just got a 6 running super old iOS.
Things are not changing rapidly, this has been a failure mode on Teslas for almost a decade; it's been a problem at least since 2016 when Joshua Brown was decapitated by his Tesla running on AP. People keep saying "no, that was the last version. The new software/hardware version fixes it", but the looney tunes test demonstrates Tesla's sensor stack continues to be fundamentally insufficient.
And this is why: https://insideevs.com/news/658439/elon-musk-overruled-tesla-...
Musk thinks he knows better than his engineers how to solve this. And no, I don't consider Musk to be an engineer, he's a showman.
This is literally the definition of progress.
Tesla is currently developing HW5 which has 10x the inference capability of HW3. More progress.
https://electrek.co/2025/05/23/tesla-full-self-driving-veers...
My chin split open, and I had to get 7 stitches. After the impact, I was hanging upside down watching blood drip down to the glass sun roof, not knowing where I was bleeding from. I unbuckled my seatbelt and sat on the fabric interior in the middle of the two front seats, and saw that my phone’s crash detection went off and told me the first responders were on their way. My whole body was in shock from the incident.
Wally said he was on Tesla FSD v13.2.8 on Hardware 4, Tesla’s latest FSD technology. He requested that Tesla send him the data from his car to better understand what happened.
This person is just too embarrassed to admit they fell asleep at the wheel and the weight of their hand disengaged FSD. This could easily be cleared up if he showed the driver facing camera the car records in a crash.... But something tells me he won't do that.
You don't fact check things very well. That's two blatant falsehoods you've swallowed. What else are you wrong about.
My initial post said: "they can't be programmed to not do things, like not run though a picture of a road like Wile E Coyote."
Then someone said: "That video was not FSD, but an old version of “driver assist”."
Then I linked a video showing that in fact FSD was driving through the wall.
Obviously if you have to upgrade the hardware to not run through the wall, then they can't program their current cars to not do so. Because, as I've said since the beginning: their sensors stack is insufficient.
And that's the standard line with Tesla fans is constantly shifting the goal posts. It was supposed to be the case that in 2016, all Teslas sold would be equipped with hardware capable of self driving, because Elon told us that cameras were enough. And yet, they have required hardware refresh after hardware refresh after hardware refresh (now on V5) because he's been wrong time and time again. Because cameras aren't enough.
And what is this progress you speak of? Just special casing edge cases while leaving fundamentally flawed hardware and software on the road. Now it's 2025 and maybe finally HW5 will bring it? I guess we'll have to see because nothing Elon says can be trusted as fact.
> This person is just too embarrassed to admit they fell asleep at the wheel and the weight of their hand disengaged FSD
Ah yes, a driverless system that actually doesn't prevent you from crashing because you fell asleep. I don't know why you feel this alternative take makes Tesla's product look any better. Such progress. Much driverless. It's like a sailboat that sinks instead of floating.
FSD will not randomly drive off the road and your post showed a human turning the steering wheel by accident.
Progress:
HW4>HW3 and HW4 cars can see painted walls HW5 exists and will be deployed soon.
Goalposts shifted by you = 2
How do you know? The point of the video I posted from Youtube was in response to a chorus of people claiming the looney tunes test wasn't valid because FSD wouldn't be affected by it. And yet, they demonstrated FSD plowing through the wall. So Tesla had to respond by upgrading the entire HW stack, because a HW3 car apparently doesn't have the necessary hardware to see the wall. That's called moving a goalpost.
We have Teslas driving into walls, Teslas driving into firetrucks, Teslas driving under tractor trailers and decapitating their passengers. Presumably they weren't supposed to randomly do that either, yeah?
So with what confidence can you tell me they won't drive off the road? Has Tesla proved this? Is there independent testing that has verified it won't? Is there any guarantee Tesla can offer that they won't? Does Tesla even make this claim?
> HW4>HW3 and HW4 cars can see painted walls HW5 exists and will be deployed soon.
The entire existence of HW4 shows us that cameras are not enough. The entire thesis of Musk is that this should have been possible with the original Tesla sensor stack, so why are we on HW5?
“The Model 3, Model Y, and S and X that we make today, will be capable of full autonomy, unsupervised.” If that sounds familiar, it is because he said almost exactly the same thing several times in the past, as far back as 2016. Musk reiterated this sentiment after the release of HW3/AI3 in 2019, and as we all know, Tesla has since released HW4/AI4, and has HW5/AI5 on the horizon.
You want goalpost moving, that's goalpost moving.
The point is that automated driving with a fleet of sensors can be an order of magnitude safer than just using cameras. The current slow improvements at Tesla do not correlate to an unlimited amount of improvements.
Does that mean I think it’s the future or they have won? Nope, not at all. I don’t like Musk but I also don’t let me feelings for him cloud the discussion.
I have no idea who is going to win or what that strategy will be, vision only, lidar, combination etc. but it’s false to make claims like yours. I get it though it’s easy to take your hate for an individual in an extension to other adjacent discussions. I don’t like the guy either but not worth making up silly claims.
“Tesla has been getting closer to FSD the same way climbing up a ladder gets you closer to the moon”
This is a silly claim that perpetuates your dislike of Musk. FSD has absolutely gotten no where close to his claims. I have no idea if vision only is the right path and Tesla probably does play too fast and loose but their FSD program has absolutely been making improvements in, especially in the past few years. How about you back up your claim instead of using hyperbole?
I stated my reasoning, the sensor stack in insufficient. The evidence is they've been trying at it for close to a decade now, and have had to continually move the goal posts, missing their self-proclaimed milestones, delaying their shipping dates by years, reneging on their promises and projections, and leaving a trail of death and destruction in their wake (and that's not hyperbole); whereas Waymo went with a better sensor stack (the one roboticists have been saying was the way to go), and is actually shipping a true full self-driving service, one that won't run off the road if you fall asleep.
So we already know what does work (orthogonal sensors like LIDAR+RADAR+Camera) and what doesn't work (Camera only). We learned this in 2007 at the DARPA Urban Challenge, and it's been affirmed by Tesla's continued track record of failure in 2025.
It’s far more likely that you’ll be commuting in a Waymo someday.
Like some other tech moguls, you can’t separate the man from the company. The company lacks meaningful governance, so for good or ill it’s an expression of Elon’s hopes and desires. Facebook is similar, but Zuck is more calculated and rational. Elon is obviously a man in need of help who is degrading before us.
Meanwhile, Google actually delivered the robot taxi in SFO, and it’s amazing.
The sensor strategy really says it all. Why skimp on a minor part of the BOM, which enables a use case with 50-100x value?
The whole Tesla schtick is such a bizarre Lucy and the Football scenario, over and over again.