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Comment by SoftTalker | Hacker News Reader

> The prevailing counter-narrative is that AI is going to flop. HARD.

Why is that the counter-narrative? Doesn't it seem more likely that it will contine to gradually improve, perhaps asymptotically, maybe be more specifically trained in the niches where it works well, and it will just become another tool that humans use?

Maybe that's a flop compared to the hype?

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At the rate the hyperscalers are increasing capex anything less than 1990s internet era growth rates will not be pretty. So far its been able to sustain those growth rates at the big boy AI companies (look at OpenAI revenue over time) but will it continue? Are we near the end of major LLM advances or are we near the beginning? There are compelling arguments both ways (running out of data is IMO the most compelling bear argument).

Re: running out of data

LLM bulls will say that they are going to generate synthetic data that is better than the real data.

It's been able to sustain 90s era revenue growth rates, not 90s era income growth rates no?

I think all of the dot com boom companies other than the shovel sellers like MS and Cisco were not profitable in the 90s? Not even future behemoths like Amazon.

Amazon would've been profitable if it weren't investing so much in growth. Also, eBay, Yahoo!, AOL, Priceline, Cisco Systems, E*TRADE and DoubleClick became profitable in the 90s according to DeepSeek.

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