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The reality is that almost every curve looking like an exponential is a logistic curve (sigmoid) in disguise.

If your model is relying on exponential (geometric growth) it is very likely wrong.

I feel like that's true for most economic things but is that necessarily the case for things such as computation?

For instance, my understanding is that computers have been getting exponentially faster for 70 years.

I realize the thing they are modeling (intelligence?) is a bit hard to define so I hope/think they are wrong. But I'm not sure how to be so certain.

We are getting there already with computers. They have been doing some clever tricks lately to keep up but the reality is transistor size is not reducing at the rate it was before and it already shows (in CPU/GPU size for example)

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