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Comment by Spivak | Hacker News Reader

I'm not sure why anyone thinks it will compete with car ownership. You know what's better than an autonomous taxi, a private autonomous taxi that's just for you.

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The opportunity cost of having a vehicle sit unused in a parking lot 90+% of the time is really high. We've only tolerated it for so long because human labor is and has been more expensive than the vehicle's depreciation. Autonomous taxis potentially flip the script on that assumption.

Sure, rich people will always have enough money to afford luxuries like privacy and comfort, but most people are price sensitive and will opt for the cheapest transportation solution that delivers them where they need to go in the fastest amount of time. I would wager this will be a Waymo type autonomous taxi service but time will tell.

We're talking about personal vehicle ownership, there's no opportunity cost because you weren't going to make money on it anyway. My car sitting in my garage isn't costing me money nor is it losing value to me as a means of taking me and my stuff places. If you're one of the people that cares about the deprecation of your car's resale value then you're already doing the math on this and living a depressing life. But if you're like most normal car owners you bought a car to drive it and will replace it once you get your 200k miles out of it when its value is less than the $2000 minimum trade-in the dealership gives you.

The other problem is that I can't haul shit in a robo-taxi. Or drive long distances. People use their vehicles for more than just transporting bodies to and from work. And if I kill my neighbor I probably can't take his body in the trunk either. I would love to know what kind of life you and the other sibling commenters are living where a taxi service encompasses the totality of your transportation needs.

Assuming that you're keeping the registration up to date, your car does cost some money to sit in your garage even it if you'd consider it a negligible amount

> I'm not sure why anyone thinks it will compete with car ownership.

Maybe not 100% of cars, but a very good chance that it will eat into owning a 3rd or 2nd car in a household.

With all the maintenance and other hassles? No thanks.

EVs are virtually maintenance free. Versus the chances of getting into a car that was mistreated by some other POS?

Yes please.

> I'm not sure why anyone thinks it will compete with car ownership

As you can see in your replies, there are a lot of techies who think it will. And furthermore, Tesla's valuation can only be made sense of if Tesla investors believe Tesla robotaxis will eat whole car industry, not just the whole taxi industry.

Kinda, but do also consider that most people can only afford (and have space for) one car, perhaps two if they're upper-middle class or have really old second hand ones, which means what they do buy has to cover most or all needs over the year.

On the other hand, if there were a way to rent any vehicle for about the same price as ownership (not that I think Musk will deliver this, but in principle someone else might), you can rent the one with the big boot once a week for shopping, the truck once every two months for a trip to the hardware store, and the tiny cheap city car for your commute.

>also consider that most people can only afford (and have space for) one car, perhaps two if they're upper-middle class or have really old second hand ones

In the U.S., something like 59% of households own two or more cars. 22% have three or more.

https://shunauto.com/article/how-many-people-have-a-car-in-a...

Ok, but (1) worldwide (see e.g. my own profile); (2) I said people, not households.

Working class American households have one car per adult and often a third beater for their teenager. In America, factory workers drive pickup trucks instead of more affordable cars, not because they need to haul things, but simply because they prefer the aesthetic.

This notion of Americans not being able to into car ownership is divorced from reality.

Not sure why this is downvoted. The whole premise of this robotaxi shit was started on the fact that your own, personal car, could be used as a taxi when you're not using it.

And also, the same reason people don't use taxis exclusively today is because you have to plan ahead or sit around and wait for a vehicle to come get you. Who is going to want to do that, when your empty driveway could house a car that pays for itself, makes you money, and is available whenever you need it?

I also don't think that taxis will be cheaper just because there is no driver. The savings is never passed down to the customer, never has been, and never will.

People who don't have cars today already manage to get around just fine, mostly due to where they live. This won't really change anything for them.

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