I have a heavy bias against that website, but it may be unfounded.
It's been around for a while now, are there any 3rd party reliable studies showing how good polymarket markets are at predicting events?
It's been around for a while now, are there any 3rd party reliable studies showing how good polymarket markets are at predicting events?
There was one investor from France I believe who bet heavily on Trump winning almost $28M. After election it was revealed he had some private polling done, which informed his decision.
It doesn't answer the question you posed, but I believe these markets could highlight some inefficiencies that conventional mainstream information cannot capture.