Don't get me wrong, this is awesome for filling the commute hole, but many many people use their cars for longer trips as well. Until you can make it viable for both I'm not spending many tens of thousands of dollars on it.
Don't get me wrong, this is awesome for filling the commute hole, but many many people use their cars for longer trips as well. Until you can make it viable for both I'm not spending many tens of thousands of dollars on it.
Personally I just drive around the SF bay area. Maybe 120 miles on my longest driving day. For the one-two times a year I go farther, I suppose I need to rent a car, take transit. or have someone else drive. That seems like a reasonable price to pay to have the coolest car on the planet for a few years.
That doesn't however just make it "my problem." There aren't very many people buying any of these cars, so I assume it's a problem for more than just me.
The point I'm trying to make, is that if I'm spending 50-100k on a car, I want it to solve "the driving problem." i.e. if I need to drive somewhere, I'd like to be able to do it. Whether I do it often or not is irrelevant. In my case I actually do do it quite frequently, but I suspect that many people don't buy these not because they actually do this once every month or two like I do, but because they want to be able to if they want or need to.
Maybe it's vacation, maybe it's seeing family, maybe it's an emergency. You need to go somewhere and you want to jump in the car and go there. With this you can't, and instead have to go spend several hundred extra dollars and a have a huge hassle of renting a car. No thank you.
What is interesting, though, is that at least in Los Angeles pretty much every other car in the $100k range is a lot more common than the Roadster. I think I've seen one once. Even considerably pricier cars are more common than that.
If you mean Teslas - an article in june said there are 10k reserved, which means the waiting list is a year long.
If you mean electric cars in general - I would urge you not to compare the leaf or volt to a tesla model S. The former was sold to cost conscious people who ultimately and correctly saw false economy, limitations and questionable design. The tesla can be sold to anyone who would buy a new BMW/Audi/Mercedes and wants to look earth conscious, tech savy, or hip.
Chevy Volt is doing halfway decent selling 1,800 units per month even if it isn't as good as original projections.
Reservations in August for Model S are already coming close to that pace and the upward trend is accelerating, with each retail store now ramping up to multiple reservations per day.
Tesla is already planning to increase production to a monthly rate that translates into 30,000 units per year, but based on current trends it looks increasingly likely that next year's production might be sold out as early as January or February.
As to who will want the car, it's anyone who wants a new BMW/Audi/Mercedes and who wants to look earth conscious, tech savy, or hip while also saving a ton of money compared to the competition.
Model S Performance (the regular production model as opposed to the limited edition Signature Founders edition used in the test) costs less than BMW M5 even before the huge yearly savings on gas and maintenance (the performance is identical to the tested car, but it has different paint and interior options and is not a limited edition).
Model S 85 costs the same as the 550i GT (its most similar competitor) and saves thousands per year. It also competes with and compares favorably to various 7 series offerings while costing the same or less, and always saving a ton of operating expenses.
Those two cars are the bread and butter of the Model S lineup and are hyper competitive with their conventional counterparts. There are a million plus cars sold in this segment globally and Model S has a big competitive advantage.
Don't forget that the Model S costs around $50,000. Most buyers can afford maintain a second car for the kinds of trips you're talking about.
Keep in mind that you don't get 250 miles of range unless the place on the other end can charge your car for you. You only get 125. That's really not that far.
I doubt that. Take a look at this:
http://www.autospies.com/news/Study-Finds-Americans-Own-2-28...
The average American household owns 2.28 vehicles. The percentage of households that own three or more vehicles is a whopping 35 percent.
Furthermore, the most common pairing of vehicles in American households with two to four cars is a full-sized pickup truck and a standard, mid-range vehicle. The latter can basically be a Tesla.
As for budget, sure, the Tesla is a bit on the expensive side, but it is not difficult to afford for middle-class families.
We drove from Fontana on the eastern edge of the L.A.
basin to San Diego and all the way back to L.A.'s Pacific
edge on one charge. Five hours of continuous driving.
The 233 mile, 5 hour trip was done on a single charge.To me that's pretty far - I could tolerate a 1 hour break every 5 hours.
I certainly agree that serious range and uptake will need serious charging and generation infrastructure.
If your family already has an actual charge station they DON'T need it because they aren't about to go driving 200 miles while you are visiting, and if they are the car can be charged before you get there, or charged after you are done with Model S. It takes 4 HOURS to do a full standard charge. You can charge 2 cars in a night easy.
If your family doesn't have a 240v plug it can be installed for anywhere from $300-$1100. If you go there regularly, just pay to have it installed and it will pay for itself.
Musk said Tesla might die, but it has nothing to do with sales. They have sales coming out of their ears right now, the problem is ramping up production to get cars to people who are throwing their money at Tesla.
I'd focus on 2+ car households. I would love to have an electric that doesn't suck and another car for the wife, traveling, hauling kids, etc. The Tesla doesn't work for me in this case because of its price and the other EVs are not interesting enough for me, but hopefully that will change as the prices come down and the tech spreads out.
I do agree with you that the Tesla is not a mass market vehicle yet. But not because of the 450-mile trip issue. It is because most people/families should not (or cannot) be buying a $50,000 car, even if it means saving a few thousand dollars a year in fuel costs. It would take too long (if ever) to break even on the increased cost. Once EV's get down to more competitive prices, then it starts making more sense. However, if you have the cash, and you like the idea of the Tesla, then yes you should go for it, because without early adopters, Tesla could end up folding.
It sounds like you're not in the Model S market segment. Folks that can buy cars in the $50k-$80k range typically wouldn't balk at the cost of renting a car for the weekend. The hassle, maybe, but not the cost.
There are also lots of folks & places whose weekend trips are inside the range of the Model S (consider Boston -> Martha's Vineyard, or Manhattan to The Hamptons for instance).
There are any number of two car households where one car is unsuitable for long family trips. Somehow they exist just fine.
$179. Still not seeing "hundreds of dollars" here.
What if someone made you a "range extender" module that attaches to the towing hitch? I'd design one on a detaching cart so no lifting would be involved to install.
Finally, not sure how this works, but it seems that "running out of gas" would be a much bigger problem. Can't just get a tank of gas and bring it out to the car. I assume you have to get the car towed to charging station? Are there any other options? Any easy way (i.e. something I can carry) to get a charge away from home?
http://www.teslamotors.com/roadster/charging/spare-mobile-co...
(They also have higher power options)
The scheme I was thinking about involved gas powered generators. So running out of gas is closer to the problem with a regular car.
Hats off to you if you can put up with that much time in a car, but personally I would take a plane.
I threw out the 5k number as something where I would be extremely confident I would never hit before being able to recharge, not as a number of miles I go frequently.