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Comment by WarOnPrivacy | Hacker News Reader

The Florida perspective.

Miami is it's own market, Miami condos doubly so. They are not weathering the insurance crisis well.

Increased inventory in Orlando/Tampa/Ft.Myers is due to new builds. Prices haven't dropped from their skyrocket peak. Rents are double pre-covid.

The steep insurance increases will guarantee that housing costs stay unaffordable for generations. FL locations w/o history of hurricane damage are seeing rate increases like they live on the coast. But that's always been the case.

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Look at sales to list prices and time on market in Tampa St Pete, sellers are still making peace with the downward price momentum, but it’s happening.

https://qz.com/homes-housing-mortgages-underwater-pandemic-b...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUpTyY8RDAU

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Sjbqps5WRj4

> Look at sales to list prices and time on market in Tampa, sellers are still making peace with the downward price momentum, but it’s happening.

Tampa is still at the top of the curve and will be for a very long time. Florida saw the highest climb in the nation and Tampa saw the highest climb in Florida.

The only thing that changed there's a little waver at the top of the peak while the historically short selling periods transition into normalcy. The only houses that aren't sure-sellers are the odd pricey unicorns.

New neighborhoods still advertise (and get) the same eye-watering prices they did last month and last year.

I just sold a property in Tampa. Comps said the value was between 430 and 480. I knew 480 was high, I told my realtor to follow my direction, we’re running an experiment. I started at 500 and cut 10k every week like clockwork. It sold for 429 with 3% to the buyer’s agent and 3.5% in seller concessions (which I was happy to provide, I wanted the buyer to be in the best position possible based on my intel of their financial situation, and I don’t need the money).

Realtor was not surprised, and has other properties sitting 100+ days because they’re still priced too high.

New neighborhoods going up in Pasco and Hernando like the 2000s. They're sold out well before completion. The prices are at least as high as last year.

Call the builders and ask what the incentives are, seriously. My father surveys them as a mortgage originator on a weekly basis to know how much they're buying the buyer's rate down out of their margins. The fundamentals are showing weakness. These price levels for real estate are unsustainable, even assuming 50-100bps cuts by the Fed (rising insurance costs will also push prices down assuming buyers buy a PITI monthly payment, although insurance costs are a function of location and year of structure construction [based on building code and insurer risk appetite; the closer to the coast or older the structure, the more challenging and expensive to insure]).

https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/07/01/construction-sp...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/homebuilder-sentiment-june-2...

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/homebuilder-price-cut-fl...

https://www.wtsp.com/article/money/tampa-housing-market-shif...

> they're buying the buyer's rate down out of their margins. The fundamentals are showing weakness. These price levels for real estate are unsustainable

I don't think this factors in demand pressures that are new to this market. Houses are increasingly built for mass corporate owners. Besides the aforementioned traditional neighborhood builds, we have additional single family neighborhoods being built exclusively to rent out.

Where a owner-buyer might respond to a 5% variance in the market, those corporate owners don't care. Their houses generate revenue and they can self-insure.

To them, an entire neighborhood is just another commercial venture. But that venture consumes home building resources just like traditional neighborhood builds do - except it does it without increasing the supply at all.

edit: President King has decided he wants the Fed rate under 1%. Given the staggering amount of power being gifted to him, it could be 1,785,774th inappropriate demand that gets met.

> But that venture consumes home building resources just like traditional neighborhood builds do - except it does it without increasing the supply at all.

“Home building resources” are not fixed, then can expand and contract like any other part of the economy. If lots of homes need to be built, more resources will be directed to them. (Unless forbidden by arbitrary central planners intent on forcing everyone to live in a single family house)

And building an entire neighbourhod for rental most definitely increases the housing supply. If it did not exist, the people who would have rented should be forced to rent or buy elsewhere, pushing up rents and prices.

> “Home building resources” are not fixed, then can expand and contract like any other part of the economy.

I never said building resources were fixed so not sure why you needed to rebut that.

I did say the there was competition for them which infers 1) they are a limited resources and 2) more demand for them drives up costs. That might be mitigated somewhat if suppliers want to invest in and spin up new manufacturing - which may or may not happen depending on how shareholder pressure manifests.

[flagged]

But it's like every state in that it takes an enormous pile of cash to move out and get reestablished.

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