But I would expect this to eventually reach an equilibrium where you are at "maximum uncertainty" with respect to your coarse graining. Does that sound right at all? And if so, then there must be something else responsible for the global arrow of time, right?
> If you set the collision probability to zero it's time reversible even with molecular chaos
Is this true for boring reasons? If nothing interacts then you just have a bunch of independent particles in free motion, which is obviously time-reversible. And also obviously satisfies molecular chaos because there are no correlations whatsoever. Maybe I misunderstand the terminology.
Chaos isn't even necessary, it just gets you there faster.
The collisionless case is that way for boring reasons: the map aligns with the coarse graining.
The neat part (assuming that the result is valid) is that precisely the equations of fluid dynamics result from their billiard ball models in the limit of many balls and frequent collisions.
It's just hard to figure out what the functions are for a set of boundary conditions.
F = mx''(t) = mx''(-t) since d/dt x(-t) = -x'(-t), and d/dt (-x'(-t)) = x''(-t)
Navier-Stokes is only time-reversible if you ignore viscosity, because viscosity is velocity-dependent and you can already see signs of that being a problem in the derivation above (velocity pops out a minus sign under time reversal). From my reading the OP managed to derive viscous flow too, so there really is a break in time-symmetry happening somewhere.
I wonder if "t -> -t" is lost in the Boltzmann step or in the hydrodynamic step.
Besides that, I don't think anybody is really arguing that the correlations are actually lost after a collision, just that it's usually a good approximation to treat them as if they are.
Note that the solutions x(t) are not generally time symmetric. We aren't saying that x(t)=x(-t), we are saying that x(t) is a solution to the differential equation if and only if x(-t) is, which is a weaker statement.
It's hard to take full reversibility seriously given Newton's equations are not actually deterministic. If they're not deterministic, then they can't be fully reversible.
Of course maybe these non-deterministic regimes don't actually happen in realistic scenarios (like Norton's Dome), but maybe this is hinting at the fact that we need a better formalism for talking about these questions, and maybe that formalism will not be reversible in a specific, important way.