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Comment by 2muchcoffeeman | Hacker News Reader

Isn’t the point that other countries would have to think twice before letting China get their hands on Taiwan? The advantage to China would be immense if they secured Taiwan.

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You're assuming that China is afraid of "other countries", or that those countries can do anything to stop them. Truth is, China right now is challenging the US for global dominance, they are afraid of noone. They don't need anyone's permission to "get their hands on Taiwan".

What's the likelihood that any TSMC buildings are surviving though if there is an invasion

It seems to be a pretty well substantiated rumor that TSMC’s fabs are rigged to blow in case of attack.

No, I’m assuming that they’ll want to get their hands on Taiwan with as little mess as possible and keep the assets intact if possible. If their only choice was to start a global war, I don’t think they’ll do it regardless if they would win or not.

Well, that assumption might be wrong as well... Yes, taking control of the TSMC fabs is the best possible outcome for China, but destroying them is also not so bad. It limits the supply of bleeding edge semiconductors to the Western world, giving Huawei and other Chinese companies more time to catch up.

> giving Huawei and other Chinese companies more time to catch up.

Nothing screams “favorable market conditions” like WW3 and sanctions rivaling Russia.

WW3 would not be sanctions rivaling those Russia are under. WW3 would be zero trade, submarines sinking the shipping etc. What Russia is under is just sanctions, not real war measures.

Except there wont be WW3 over Taiwan. TACO will simply proclaim its not his business.

Maybe. It would certainly be good for Intel if Taiwan's and South Korea's microchip manufacturing were destroyed. They'd have a near-total monopoly, like int the 90s.

But it would be incredibly stupid strategically.

I think only sensible path is to give Taiwan nuclear weapons. It removes all the dangers for ever.

There is another alternative that is much more likely: China gets to or at near parity and then no longer needs to get their hands on Taiwan. At that point they could just as easily destroy it as that they would want to occupy it. And that is a lot simpler. As long as Taiwan has an edge they are safer than when they are a commodity.

Kinda like Hong Kong when it came to the finance industry. Agree mostly. Instead of destroy, I would say China wouldn’t need to/care to maintain their fine balance/ special relationship with Taiwan anymore and would throw their weight around more.

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