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Comment by bigiain | Hacker News Reader

When you say "my big fear", I can't help but read "m irrational fear".

Do you _really_ fear "multicopter bombers" with a fleet "like a swarm of supersized wasps"?

To me, that's in the same class as people wo are afraid of flying, yet happily drive their car to the airport.

Realistically, terrorists don't skill up with brand new technologies to try carrying hand grenades around, they use cars/trucks/airplanes. If _I_ had a budget set to get explosives in amongst people, I'd be buying or renting cars/pickups/small trucks which can carry thousands of pounds of explosives around a city relatively inconspicuously. I wouldn't be training up teams of rc-pilots/hobby-UVA-geeks to be able to deliver a pound or three of explosive at a time.

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What's the easiest and cheapest:

a) buying a few hand grenades and premade multicopters? Hobbyists in Germany have already multicopters which are GPS pre-programmed so you don't need any pilots to control them during the mission.

b) creating thousands of pounds of explosives? Try read the detailed diary from the 2011 Norwegian terrorist to see how much time and trouble it took produce his bomb: way more time and effort than most would think.

The next 10 years will make multicopters much more accessible to non-geeks, but "thousands of pounds of explosives" won't be any easier than today. New tech gets old very quickly.

Why do you need multicopters? Terrorists already can (and some have) plant small timed bombs in crowded areas. I don't really see much difference other than that they can target more secure areas. This would be useful if they wanted to attack military targets, but since their usual goal is civilian casualties, they can by definition already get to places civilians congregate.

When planting a bomb you have to visit the scene of the crime and risk being seen.

With multicopters there's virtually no risk of getting caught.

A multicopter is going to be a lot more conspicuous than a person with a briefcase. I don't buy it.

Hobbyists in Germany have already multicopters which are GPS pre-programmed so you don't need any pilots to control them during the mission.

Hobbyists everywhere can have this - Arducopter (DIYDrones.com) and other projects have had this for years. Arduino + compass + GPS + accelerometer + altimeter + optional XBee radio (~2km+ range on some models) + autopilot software... preprogrammed routes, live telemetry and course changes via Xbee and ground control software.

I have absolutely no idea where where I can purchase a live grenade. However, living in a rural area, I'd have no trouble finding people who know how to make explosives from common (and cheap) farm materials. Hell, I was making blackpowder when I was 11 years old.

Now add to that the fact that in the US I can buy a used car or pickup truck cheaper than I can buy a cheap GPS-equipped model helicopter and I definitely know which option I'd be more worried about.

What about 3D printers making guns? And chemical construction machines making drugs and explosives?

We're heading for a very interesting future.

What about 3D printers making guns? ... We're heading for a very interesting future.

We're already there. These guys printed a lower receiver (legally considered to be "the gun") of an AR-15:

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/133514-the-worlds-first-3...

Now you can't (right now) even with laser sintering produce some of the highest tolerance parts of a gun, such as the barrel. But we're getting there.

producing a barrel is not even hard with a well set up lathe, is it? I mean, certainly you can outperform muskets easily enough.

Yeah, I was just thinking of the scenario where you just download a file, print it, and you have a finished product, with some assembly.

With 3-D printers, this can currently be done with only very simple products. But the capabilities are expanding...

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