Progress is famously not a straight line.
I'm talking about the trendline. If you deploy that machine learning knowledge and draw a best fit line. That line has a slope that is upward.
If you were in 1969 and extrapolated the trendline, we would have colonized the inner solar system by now.
Why don’t you take a more realistic look at it. Trendlines predict things. They don’t guarantee things.
You want to make a prediction based off of bullshit? Or if you want to make a prediction based off of a trendline. I pick the later. You pick the former because of one example.
If we know that locally we are on a line, and we know that the trend obeyed that of a line or upward trend -x units into the past. The most probable bet is to say that the line will obey the trend +x units into the future.
The more data and the less noise we have on the past trend makes predicted future trend more likely. This is The data driven logic, no way around this other then using your gut to say random contrary shit.
My claim is given all the information we have the best most probable bet is AI will follow the trend it followed in the past. And your bet is that it won’t and you didn’t even supply any qualitative evidence for why not. You just cited common trope quotes from investing without nuance. You realize that value investing on the index sp500 is a trendline based bet?