So even areas where population is stable, and housing supply increases, it can result in very few tangible gains at the margin.
So even areas where population is stable, and housing supply increases, it can result in very few tangible gains at the margin.
Those families' kids have now grown up, and the houses have appreciated, sometimes as much as 2-3x, due to a nearby light rail development connecting the neighborhood to the city at large on cheap transit. So those families are cashing out their housing by selling primarily to out-of-market elderly wealthy downsizers, typically from California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Texas.
The result is a neighborhood of 3- and 4-bedroom homes that once housed families of 4 or more people now mostly inhabitated by 2 or fewer people (many left vacant more than half the year as these wealthy retirees frequently travel). They also refit these former starter or second homes to accommodate these elderly inhabitants' reduced mobility and/or increase the home's luxury.
When these residents die in 10 or so years, even if the market corrects prices downward, these homes will now be even less suitable for anything but wealthy elderly inhabitants. The intelligent thing for the city to do would be to tear them down and replace them with accessible and affordable density; the reality is that the wealthy elderly who haven't died yet will spend the rest of their lives blocking such efforts out of spite.
Or, they're just protecting their property value and neighborhood composition, like anyone else would do.
Nearby property development often increases property values. People are not fighting developers because of money.
^ This...
> demand housing is much, much more elastic than people realize
^ ...does not imply this.
If the only housing that is available is 3000sq.ft. for a family of 3, that family doesn't have the option to split it up and only buy 1500sq.ft. of it. They need to be able to afford the whole thing.
(Also, I question the extent to which this premise is true, at least in cities. Everything else I've been seeing is that people are living in much less space than they used to, due to the rising prices. Taking a studio apartment rather than a 1-bedroom, living with roommates, etc. But even if the premise is true, it doesn't imply your conclusion.)
Could that also be explained perhaps by the fact that people are willing to live farther away from cities (where land / homes are cheaper and larger) because they only have to work 3 days a week from the office? Or because commuting is less painful with newer cars?
It's a mix of car culture, proprty value being lower farther away from cities so develops can create a high margin on building neighborhoods marketed on big, new houses.