How Baltimore's violent crime rate hit an all-time low: 'It's hard work' | Hacker News Reader

How Baltimore's violent crime rate hit an all-time low: 'It's hard work'

theguardian.com

23 pointsmitchbob17 comments

Anybody got a feeling for whether Baltimore's crime statistics, like Washington DC's, are incorrect, under-reporting all kinds of property crime, and that Baltimore is not as tough on criminals as it ought to be?

How do you know that Washington DC's crime statistics are incorrect?

I'm gonna guess the answer is, because the Leader said so.

How do you suppose under-reporting property crime (provided this is actually happening in any major US city, of course) could lower the homicide rate by 40%?

That guy over there fell backwards onto some bullets. Must have been suicide! How did they do it in the documentary film "Hot Fuzz?" Use any non-violent accident or whatever category you can get away with.

But actually, here's the real truth, buried in the article:

"In Mosby’s last two years in office, 2,186 people faced felony gun charges. Mosby dismissed about 34% and another 30% received plea bargains, mostly without imprisonment. In Bates’s first two years, the number of cases increased a bit, to 2,443. Bates only dismissed 19% of the cases, and only 10% received plea agreements. The rest were convicted – an increase of about 1,000 people sent to prison – which includes a 70% increase in homicide convictions."

They put more violent people behind bars.

And that led to under reported statistics?

Well, The Wire shows how Baltimore’s police department attempted to underreport crimes as well.

Well, if a fictional drama said so...

It was based on a true story, but whatever I guess

And the last episode came out almost 20 years ago, based on things David Simon had heard about in the years before that.

I would say near 100% certainty--if you don't report crimes or mis-represent them, you can "fix" the crime problem without actually doing anything.

Incidentally, back when people were comparing US incarceration rates to China and noting how the US had way more people behind bars per capita (apparently) they never mentioned how China executes criminals in large numbers and very quickly, thereby keeping their official incarceration rates lower. Magic!

Is there really any doubt which nation has a worse human rights record?

I doubt Baltimore is any better than it ever was.

Yeah but we do actually have a massive inmate population and China isn’t really a high bar in the human rights department.

The only country imprisoning more people then USA is Russia ... so sense of unfairness on this point is likely off point.

You can't fail to report murder. But it sounds like you've already reached a conclusion and will reject any evidence to the contrary.

Not in the least?

Is there any reason to think DC crimes are underreported other then wishful thinking and support for Trumps power grab?

Maybe there's another Hamsterdam.

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