The tech isn’t going away, and is cool/useful, but from a business standpoint this whole thing looks like a dumpster fire burning next to a gasoline truck. Right now VC FOMO is the only thing stopping all that from blowing up. When that slows down buckle up.
How many "we will have AGI by X/X/201X" predictions have we blown past already?
Just imagine how many predictions we'll have in six months, or even a year from now!
This seems wildly inaccurate.
Can you find any single such claim from any credible source? Anybody hyping up an AGI timeframe within the 2010s?
https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-predicts-ai-w...
Another AI company CEO prediction:
2025 is halfway through the 2020's.
There's definitely people who don't understand the tech talking about applying it increasing the failure rate of software projects.
But...is it and are they? Gen AI boosters tend to make assertions like this as if they're unassailable facts, but never seem interested in backing them up. I guess it's easier than thinking.
Human thought is the only way any software (including LLMs) operate efficiently.
Same goes for leveraging LLMs.
It is, and they are.
For the boosters, notice how few or many come from a tech background and pay attention accordingly
They’re all so highly levered up that they can’t afford for the bubble to pop. If this goes on for another couple of years before the pop, we may see “too big to fail” wheeled out to justify a bailout of Google or Microsoft.
I'm sure there will be losers, but I'm not quite sure who.
They’re also acting as a guarantor to lots of infrastructure project - meaning the debt is their responsibility, but not on their books.
If the creditworthiness of any of the hyperscalers slip, even a tiny amount, the tech and banking sectors are in some hot water.
But 100 billion is still on the order of the current profit of each. I suppose with interest, if it's sustained over time it could be a problem though.
That was probably 2-3 years ago.
I'd be surprised if VCs hadn't already figured out they're in a bubble. They're probably playing a game of chicken to see who will remain to capture the actually profitable use cases.
There's also a number of lawsuits going on against AI companies regarding piracy and copyright. It's already an established fact in the courts that these companies have downloaded ebooks, music, videos, and images illegally to train their models.
/s