Comment by matheusmoreira | Hacker News Reader

Comment by matheusmoreira | Hacker News Reader

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> most of the names on that list have no problems ignoring US sanctions if it comes to that

Somehow I doubt it...

Trump has already imposed 50% tariffs, causing major economic losses. NATO has already threatened to impose 100% tariffs on us if we keep buying russian oil. And these are mere tariffs, not actual sanctions.

It's very hard to predict what's going to happen if things keep spiralling out of control.

> Our sovereignty is very much real and existent :)

Sovereignty must be backed up by military and economic power. We have neither. It's complete fantasy.

Do you really think the likes of China and Russia are going to defend us and our interests if push comes to shove?

Look at Ukraine. Gave up nuclear weapons because the USA promised to defend them if push came to shove. How's it going for them?

They'll use us like pawns and then turn us into their own backyard. Not that our relation with the USA is any different but personally I'd rather live in the USA's backyard than in China's backyard.

> Nope, we'll be fine.

Remains to be seen.

> Trump has already imposed 50% tariffs, causing major economic losses. NATO has already threatened to impose 100% tariffs on us if we keep buying russian oil. And these are mere tariffs, not actual sanctions.

Maybe we're looking at vastly different numbers, but most analysts are expecting little to no impact from the 50% tariffs. The US only makes up 12% of our exports, and they've already cut down the scope so that only around 36% of those are even affected. Since we mostly export commodities, even those 36% can just be sold elsewhere.

The NATO claims are irrelevant: NATO is not a trade alliance and the US struggles to get it to comply even with its intended military goals. You can safely place the odds of the other NATO countries agreeing to their own tariffs at approximately 0%.

> Sovereignty must be backed up by military and economic power. We have neither. It's complete fantasy.

Not sure where you get this idea? We have both military and economic power. Just because we're not as large as the US or China doesn't mean we have nothing.

Also, I don't see why you think there's a possibility of this escalating to war. Trump already had to back down with large exceptions to his 50% tariffs due to the domestic political impact it would have, and war is extremely unpopular with the Americans these days, which is why they only fund Ukraine and Israel instead of actually sending soldiers to fight.

> Maybe we're looking at vastly different numbers

Even though the scope of the tariffs was reduced, we're still talking figures around hundreds of billions of BRL worth of immediate damage to the economy, with long term losses uncertain.

> Since we mostly export commodities, even those 36% can just be sold elsewhere.

There is no guarantee that there will be enough demand from alternative buyers to fully mitigate the long term damage.

> You can safely place the odds of the other NATO countries agreeing to their own tariffs at approximately 0%.

People told me the same thing about the Magnitsky sanctions. I realize that as of this moment it's all just threats but I won't doubt them.

> Not sure where you get this idea?

Well, from the fact Trump could order a single B2 Spirit to wipe Brasília off the map and there'd be nothing at all the entire brazilian military could do about it.

The USA can also effortlessly isolate our country via economic levers. There's no need to fire any bullets. Those levers are going to move some mountains if the supreme court keeps protecting the sanctioned judge.

> I don't see why you think there's a possibility of this escalating to war

I do think that's very unlikely. They'll probably keep leveraging their massive economy and USD hegemony against us.

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