I think it’s interesting to watch this play out. I believe many people knew that gpt5 was chronically delayed as long as it could be, because the measuring stick of 2->3->4 was going to show a significant smaller step, which would inevitably destroy their market value.
It would be interesting if that does end up becoming the thing that pops the bubble. There is not longer any reason for the average person to take seriously the hype from OpenAI. They can now see for themselves that the long awaited release of GPT5 is an emperor without clothes.
I don't think any significant conclusion, for the future of AI/possibility of AGI, should be made by looking at a single model/company.
What I'm trying to say is that the stock market mostly runs on vibes at this point. And when you have the CEO of the leading model company hyping up a release people have been anticipating for 2 years by tweeting out images of the death star, saying that it made him feel useless, etc. etc., and then it turns out to be a cost-cutting exercise and causes a massive uproar amongst its most loyal users, I think the market is going to adjust to reflect the bad vibes.