That's surely an interesting take when their demographics are absolutely imploding, and their economy is rife with state sponsored excess funded by debt.
Say what you will about capital markets, but they do tend to deliver things that are actually desired and economically valuable given the right pricing incentives.
I've long argued that we should replace our income tax with a progressive but heavy carbon tax. This would be far more effective than federal greenhouse gas regs and incentive programs. Unfortunately they're politically dead on arrival because they would tax the rich, powerful and politically connected far more than your average joe.
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” - Sun Tzu, The Art of War
I don't believe any of the stats coming out of China. I think it is best to approach data coming out of adversarial countries with lots of paranoia.
As of a few months ago, the US has demonstrably proven that they are willing to lie about stats and data because the president throws a hissy fit at reality, so, no, they absolutely shouldn't.
If anti-aging tech arrives in the next two decades, demographic will stop imploding, their and everyone else. It becomes a matter of execution.
I've long argued that we should replace our income tax with a progressive but heavy carbon tax. This would be far more effective than federal greenhouse gas regs and incentive programs. Unfortunately they're politically dead on arrival because they would tax the rich, powerful and politically connected far more than your average joe.
Piguovian taxes and LVT are good ideas if politically difficult to implement, yet I am cautiously optimistic. There had been news about accurate appraisal of land in Baltimore that made local media coverage.
Whereas the US is better with state sponsored VC funded debt ?
>but they do tend to deliver things that are actually desired and economically valuable given the right pricing incentives.
No, they don't. Any look at the market in the past 15 years will tell you that they don't, and that nothing major or of value has been produced by "the market". It's all propped on debt and infinite money printing.
The other shoe that is waiting to drop is the amount of spending and shadowy debts that to prop up the real estate industry. The vast majority of Chinese have invested their life savings into what looks like a mirage.
Thirdly, they've become the world's factory. But now now they've priced themselves out and it's moving to places like Vietnam and India. So now what's left? Consumer spending? High tech? It looks like they need to reinvent themselves again.
see https://www.businessinsider.com/japans-eighties-america-buyi...
and movies like Gung Ho, and Rising Sun, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gung_Ho_(film) and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rising_Sun_(1993_film)
That is just unrealistic on a longer timescale.
https://overcast.fm/+AAN68WmR_iU/45:36
He also wrote a reasonable piece on the western mischaracterization and rewriting history of china‘s pandemic response
In any case, Tooze is a serious thinker who has written various things besides this line I paraphrased from a podcast. I recommend checking out his work.
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-401-the-dollar-sy...
I believe pretty solidly in chaos theory. The future is exponentially more unknowable and unpredictable the further out you try to predict. Anyone claiming they have a script for the 21st century is worth dismissing outright, no matter what their IQ is and no matter how many GPUs they have under their command.
The future is dynamic and evolving and people are more adaptive than you think. Any outcome that can be conceived is being hedged against.
Sure, China might rule over the ashes, but I wouldn't make large bets over what the world would look like when the tensions that have accumulated over the past 30 years explode catastrophically.