I wonder how much capex risk there is in this model, depreciating the GPUs over 5 years is fine if you can guarantee utilization. Losing market share might be a death sentence for some of these firms as utilization falls.
I don't have difficulty getting to a 20% productivity gain with AI just from automating the tasks I procrastinate on or can't focus on. Likewise the ability to code a prototype overnight/over the weekend is a reasonable extension of practical working hours.
The challenge I do see is that fully AI generated code bases devolve into slop pretty fast. The productivity cutoffs are much lower compared to human engineers.