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Comment by bsimpson | Hacker News Reader

When we were kids, my dad felt like he was always the last one to buy into the stock market. He would buy, it would peak, and then it would crater.

I was gonna buy in when the tariff shock hit, but it started to rebound before I got in. The 40% rise since then feels so irrational (though it's "only" 20% if you ignore the tariff shock).

I feel like I'm about to be my dad - watch the whole climb going "it's gotta come down, right?", capitulate at the top, and then have the bottom fall out.

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How much are you timing when to buy vs buying in little bits continuously? If you just buy a set amount per month your cost will balance out better I think

Dollar cost averaging is the way.

Diamond hands is the way. Just keep holding!!!

> Diamond hands is the way. Just keep holding!!!

You’re mocking a well known, risk adverse market investment strategy.

Because an even more well known, even more risk adverse market investment strategy is right in front of you. BUY AND HOLD!

If you're not renetech/a HFT company, you might as well give up on ever finding reliable arbitrage/alpha. You're not a market maker or market mover.

Time in the market vs timing the market

>When we were kids, my dad felt like he was always the last one to buy into the stock market. He would buy, it would peak, and then it would crater.

But if your dad bought and held when you were a kid he'd be up 1000% now. You simply cannot time the market, ever. But over time, "stocks go up" is pretty much guaranteed. The people in charge won't let it not be.

I believe USD has devalued by a comparable amount since Liberation Day, so a big portion of that is the USD falling relative to stock.

Edit: https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-de...

You don't have to "believe". If you can find data that indicate that the dollar has devalued 40% (or even 20%) since "Liberation" Day, I'd like to see it.

From memory, I think it was something like 10% since Liberation Day.

Ideally, you'd set your asset allocation some time ago, and you'd mostly be in or out already, with surplus income going in every paycheck (or so). You only sell when you shift your asset allocation or need money for something, and you adjust your allocation (and risk profile) depending on your future needs.

It's good to have some humility and accept the market is smarter than you. The best price you're going to get is today. Every next day it's going to be more expensive by daily (risk free rate + equity risk premium) +/- variance you are not able to predict.

Maybe some people are able to predict it but it's not you.

Remember that assets rise to counter inflation. So if the market believes there will be inflation, it will naturally rise to counter that.

People are trading dollars for shares to shelter from the dollar losing value.

Stop trying to time it. Auto invest weekly/monthly and never look at the balance.

This is why you dollar cost average. Buy every month, be in it for the long haul.

Trying to time the market is futile unless you have insider information. Then it's illegal.

Apart from the infamous timing the market, there are two adages to keep in mind - the stock market is not the economy and markets can remain irrational for a long time.

The whole tariff cycle has been irrational move. The tariffs were supposedly "removed" even when it was not - there was always a 10% default tariff. Maybe everyone is expecting a rate cut due to this tariff madness.

He sounds like the fictional 'Bob' and likely made out like a bandit, assuming he held.

https://www.wealthmorning.com/2023/09/15/648774/meet-bob-the...

Time in the market beats timing the market.

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