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Comment by sema4hacker | Hacker News Reader

> By 2028, AI already performs 90% of the jobs that once required intelligent and knowledgeable humans.

Two and a half years from now? Sound VERY optimistic.

It sounds optimistic, but exponential adoption curves show otherwise. In just 18 months since ChatGPT, AI has already displaced coding, design, research, and support roles. Once businesses see it can fully replace repetitive work at near-zero cost, adoption compresses fast. The real barrier is not tech but social and regulatory adaptation.

and even i get this wrong its just an thought experiment and has a 50% chance

> In just 18 months since ChatGPT, AI has already displaced coding, design, research, and support roles.

Can you provide an actually credible source that shows this? And what do you mean by "displaced"? Sure, AI is aiding, but it is nowhere close to replacing.

So far, the people I've seen mentioning that AI is taking jobs haven't actually provided evidence of this being the case.

Imagine hardware industries :) Agriculture, forestry, carpenters… AI is toothless and maybe it is or will be used as aid.

Everybody wants AI, it is similar to ebook readers will displace books, websites will displace other marketing channels, PDAs will displace desktop computers, and tablets will displace PDAs etc…

AI fever it is and we should take some drugs to cool down :)

Skepticism makes sense, but unlike ebooks or PDAs, AI directly changes the economics of labor. IBM, Klarna, and Duolingo have already cut roles citing AI. Agriculture and hardware will feel it too once robots integrate with AI for planning, optimization, and automation. This is not just hype, it is cost-driven adoption, and cost curves rarely cool down.

Agriculture is ruled by John Deere and maybe there will be self-driving tractors with satellite navigation but the parts behind tractor are more important and you need some human to exchange them during shift…

Fair point, but “displacement” does not always mean one-to-one replacement, it means fewer humans are hired because AI covers part of the workload. There is credible evidence: IBM froze hiring for 7,800 roles citing AI, Duolingo laid off contractors due to AI translation, and Klarna reported its AI assistant now does the work of 700 support agents. These are early signals of substitution, not just assistance.

> In just 18 months since ChatGPT

ChatGPT came out almost 3 years ago.

> AI has already displaced coding, design, research, and support roles

No it hasn't.

> Once businesses see it can fully replace repetitive work at near-zero cost

It can't.

Not surprising takes from someone with 0 professional experience and in their second year of college though.

ChatGPT was released publicly in Nov 2022, so yes, that is just under 3 years ago. On displacement: IBM announced a freeze on 7,800 roles due to AI, Klarna reported its AI assistant handles the work of 700 agents, and Duolingo cut contractors because of AI translation.

These are real workforce impacts, not hypotheticals. As for “replacement,” full substitution is rare at first, but businesses cut hiring the moment a tool can do the same task faster and cheaper. That is exactly how displacement begins.

And while I may be early in my career, the evidence is not about opinion, it is about adoption curves and cost pressures already playing out.

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