It has been years, when will it not be too early?
I had a conversation with an acquaintance a few weeks ago who was adamant that ChatGPT only really showed up less than a year ago. They were absolutely mind blown when I pointed out that ChatGPT got crazy popular literally years ago, late 2022, early 2023. They were convinced this was still very new stuff, like 8 months ago or so
I don't really blame people either. Personally I feel like the years since COVID have been a weird blur. People don't realize that lockdowns were half a decade ago already
Myself included. My perception of time has been off ever since, and 2020 quite literally feels like it was just last year.
Same for my peers. I'd really be curious to see some study done on this, and why this distorted perception of time exists now. I'm not sure I can attribute it to lock-down necessarily. I was already fully remote pre-COVID, and my habits nor work schedule changed during lock downs other than wearing a mask whenever I left the house.
I still just blame it on being old though.
On-prem to cloud -- took about 10 years. De-facto success.
Blockchain to new age of finance -- 12 years later, not much success overall (Instant regret on anyone dumb enough to buy junk crypto and NFTs)
Quantum computing -- 10ish years later, nothing major, but it might bear fruit long-term.
LLMs -- Let's average all the above and say 11 years from 2022. So 2033 is when you can say it was a bust.