> now we'll need 1 to write those and 9 to write more complicated stuff.

Or simpler :) I'd argue that in the past we needed more programmers for more complicated stuff (more hand-rolled databases, auth solutions etc. - a lot stuff was reinvented in each company), now we need many more people to glue some libraries and external solutions together.

The future could look similar, a lot of LLM vibe coders and a handful of specialized fixers.

Who knows though. Real life has a lot of inertia. One will probably do just fine writing just enterprise Java or React (or both!) for the next 30 years. I plan to be dead or retired in the next 30 years.