Capex requirements might be on a different curve than model improvements.

E.g. you might need to accelerate spending to get sub-linear growth in model output.

If valuations depend on hitting the curves described in the article, you might see accelerating capex at precisely the time improvements are dropping off.

I don’t think frontier labs are going to be a trustworthy canary. If Anthropic says they’re reaching the limit and OpenAI holds the line that AGI is imminent, talent and funding will flee Anthropic for OpenAI. There’s a strong incentive to keep your mouth shut if things aren’t going well.