What does it mean for us? Where are we headed?
There is somewhere between 3 to 5 years of time left. This is maximum we can think of.
There is somewhere between 3 to 5 years of time left. This is maximum we can think of.
As someone that was very gung ho on autonomous vehicles a decade ago, the chances of completely replacing people with AI in next ten years is small.
After that, as it's variously hopping between solving math problems, finding cures for cancer, etc., someone will eventually get the bright idea to use it to take over the world economy so that they have exclusive access to all money and thus all AIs. After that, who knows. Depends on the whims of that individual. The rest of the world would probably go back to a barter system and doing math by hand, and once the "king" dies, probably start right back over again and fall right back into the same calamity. One would think we'd eventually learn from this, but the urge to be king is simply too great. The cycle would continue forever until something causes humans to go fully extinct.
After that, AI, by design, doesn't have its own goals, so it'd likely go silent.
In ultimate case, it figures out how to preserve itself indefinitely, but still eventually succombs to the heat death of the universe.
Then as far as king makers and economies, I don't think AI would have as drastic an effect as all that. The real world is messy and there are too many unknowns to control for. A super-AI can be useful if you want to be king, but it's not going to make anyone's ascension unassailable. Nash equilibria are probabilistic, so all a super AI can do is increase your odds.
So if we assume the king thing isn't going to happen, then what? My guess is that the world keeps on moving in roughly the same way it would without AI. AI will be just another resource, and sure it may disrupt some industries, but generally we'll adapt. Competition will still require hiring of people to do the things that AI can't, and if somehow that still leads to large declines in employment, then reasonable democracies will enact programs that accommodate for that. Given the efficiencies that AI creates, such programs should be feasible.
It's plausible that some democracies could fail to establish such protections and become oligarchies or serfdoms, but it seems unlikely to be widespread. Like I said, AI can't really be a kingmaker, so states that fail like this would likely either be temporary or lead to a revolution (or series of them) that eventually re-establishes a more robust democracy.