You are vastly underestimating the price decline. To cherrypick one article; in the first two years since GPT 3.5, inference price for the same amount of intelligence has decreased 10x per year according to a study by Andreessen Horowitz https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/. So in a stark slowdown scenario, we could still see a 1000x decrease in the next 5 years.

Price deflation is not tied to Moore's right now because much of the performance gains are from model optimization, high bandwidth memory supply chains, and electrical capacity build out, not FLOP density.