> The dozens -> 2 simplifications occurred on the purely free market.
That was also done by the European Commission[0].
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_external_power_supply
That was also done by the European Commission[0].
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_external_power_supply
By the time the EU actually first proposed regulation on the matter, which was only in 2020, there were in effect three ports on the phone market: the Apple Lightning was still used in iPhones, and the rest of the market was undergoing an orderly migration from the cheaper micro-USB port, to the more expensive but better USB-C port.
So yes, the free market was entirely responsible for transitioning from dozens of ports to 3 ports, and would have very likely eventually transitioned to 2 ports. The fact that the EU made recommendation to that effect years ago after the trend had begun that was purely voluntary is an entirely irrelevant datum.
I imagine they would have eventually converged on USB anyway, but when the upcoming rules (or "rules") were announced, you definitely could not count on being able to charge your phone using anyone else's charger (or one of the many that had come with your previous phones).
Counterfactuals are tricky, and we'll never know for sure what might have been, but seeing laptop manufacturers dragging their feet, I really can't see how you could feel so certain that the market would have fixed the mess that existed just as quickly.
[1] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/memo_1... (search for "ultimatum"