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What will likely happen is that Government entities/businesses and other large business organizations will apply for licenses to access the Internet for commercial use. This is purely an information control/censoring move.

Every morning I wake up to dozens of articles in my Google Reader from Fars News, Mehr and IRIB that assure me that Iran's international trade is doing just fine without the West. Surely state media wouldn't lie...

I think it's more the former than the latter. Restricting or controlling the flow of information is a standard tool for authoritarian regimes; it's easier to control your population when you can control how they perceive the world. The Iranians have additional incentives in their national security concerns, as they'd obviously like to avoid a repeat of the Flame attack.