In 2002, Mitch Kapor bet $20k that no AI would pass the Turing Test before 2029

Congrats to Kurzweil. I would have made the same bet.

I find it puts us in a very surreal philosophical place. In 2002 I would also have said that passing the Turing test would require AGI. It's pretty clear that we have passed the Turing test without AGI.

I suspect Kurzweil would still take the bet that we'll hit AGI before 2029. I suspect that he's wrong, and that real AGI will require a significant climbdown before making new progress forward. But I'm definitely not 20 grand sure.