"Win" here doesn't mean military victory over Russia. It means Ukraine's slow destruction of of Russia's oil and gas infrastructure and the West's sanctions make it too expensive for Russia to continue, so they withdraw from Ukraine and Crimea.

What a difference just 4 years the accelerated pace of technological development makes that happens in war makes. 4 years ago, Ukraine would have ended without the influx of Western weapons. Now the West looks at the Ukrainian battle fields, and ponders the relevance of their weapons against a $10k drone, made in Ukraine.

Another more likely scenario in the next few decades is that Russia and/or China will collapse into violent revolution or civil way — as has happened multiple times throughout their long histories. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping aren't immortal. They have effectively concentrated decision making in their own hands and purged all other internal power centers, leaving no clear succession plan. When they die there's no way to predict what might happen.

The problem is, this mafia has a shitload of nuclear weapons. Without those, their vast land holdings east of the Urals would’ve already been taken by China.

Both China and Russia have concentrated vast amounts of power into a single person, it gets bloody and chaotic when the ‘one powerful man’ dies and there’s a power struggle.

Morally purer government would do better in the competition between Russia and America.