From what I've seen it's standing up. His original statement/hypothesis is often misrepresented.

"there is no single development, in either technology or management technique, which by itself promises even one order of magnitude [tenfold] improvement within a decade in productivity, in reliability, in simplicity."

If he had also included "volume" then AI would have disproved him! More anecdotally, the hands-on experiences of senior+ developers seem to firmly fall into the accidental camp, with the essence of software problem solving getting marginally easier as you'd expect with a new, powerful tool, but far from "solved".