So far there is no 'plateau' in the nearest future. 'AI' as a science and its applications should develop further for the next several years. Models will get more efficient, but still the bigger the better. This is obvious. Even if models don't scale up well, they can be used collectively in parallel 'brainstorming'. This will still create demand for hardware. Stagnation is still possible in case of recession. In this case even stable businesses will suffer.

As for efficiency, replacing one programmer in group of 10 with AI already will increase productivity and lower the price. In most cases. In reality adding AI accounts to existing group works better. This is _now_, not hopes or sci-fi.

That's why I'm saying there is no way back. 'AI winter' is as likely as smartphones winter.