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Comment by AnthonyMouse | Hacker News Reader

> No, the real problem is that the true market-clearing price for most of these vehicles was $7500-$10000 less than MSRP (which was set knowing the regulatory environment), combined with the false calculation of depreciation based on MSRP instead of market price.

This seems like it. If you paid $29,000 for something with a $36,500 MSRP because of a $7500 credit and a few years later it's worth $22,000, the amount of depreciation you're calculating by starting from MSRP and the amount that the buyer actually experienced are off by more than a factor of two.

Meanwhile the credits caused more new sales than there would have been otherwise, which means more cars of that model available in the used market, and supply and demand is still a thing.

It's not evidence that people don't want them, it's evidence that if you subsidize something the price comes down.

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Don't know about the us but all models mentioned were well over 50k (most nearing 75k+) with incentives where I live and thus fall in the top 1% income bracket range. And expensive mass produced cars lose value faster than cheaper models as they have to be sold second hand to the next lower income bracket which is an exponential curve hence the high dropoff. This used to be the same for ice cars.

Of course both can be true as well.

I wonder if COVID distorted the market enough to show up here?

I have anecdotes of friends/family/coworkers who bought cars (or second cars for the household) to avoid public transport.

And 2nd hand prices for cars gere (Australia) went batshit insane for a while during and as we chose to pretend that COVID was over - and those artificially inflated prices are mostly over now.

Not just the extra demand from people avoiding public transport but supply chain disruption caused by COVID affected the supply of new cars (and spare parts), so people who wanted a new car were now considering new-ish cars.

I have colleagues who bought new EVs and made money selling them one year later, because the market was so wild back then. For a while you could still add some deductions here, some credit there, sell an old car and “girl math” your way to a “free car”. Now people are surprised pikachu when the bubble has burst.

Not just EVs, the entire car market was insane. A friend of mine sold his minivan for $10k over what he had bought it for a year or two before.

I know of someone who sold their _place in the queue_ to get a new RAV4 Hybrid and made 8K on the deal, while actualy delivery of the car was still tow months out.

We had a whiplash effect in the US.

In late 2020 and early 2021, Used car prices plummeted due to so many people trading in 2nd vehicles. I remember tire kicking a 2008 vehicle that was 2000$ then...

Whiplash on used cars started later in 2021, as people were starting to go back out more and in some cases beginning to RTO.

The combination of rising new car prices and rising interest rates in 2022 only further hurt the market. On top of that the newer cars are in many cases less reliable so people are holding on longer.

Fwiw I just double checked and For reference that same 2008/make/mileage is now more like 5000$...

Just to be Mr pedantic here, the same mileage means you have a much better vehicle 5 years later. I would add 25-40k extra miles to account for typical mileage added per year

Sorry im not following; unless it is a 'special' car, a 2008 car with 120k miles, except accounting for inflation and market dynamics, would be worth less in 2025 with the same mileage. Except of course for the factors I mentioned (as well as inflation)

Op was comparing the same mileage 5 years later. Being pedantic about an apples to apples comparison would require adding additional miles.

Sorry that was difficult to grasp I will try to be clear in the future!

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