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I see only one with 4% chance in 2025 (obviously...). And AGI is defined as "OpenAI announces they reached AGI".

https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-it-has-achieve...

Here's 46% for 2030. It's had $350k in volume across the 4 markets.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi/oaia...

That’s also about OpenAI claiming they have AGI. That doesn’t resolve based on actual AGI.

I wonder if there is a test for AGI which is definite enough to bet on? My personal test idea is when you can send for a robot to come fix your plumbing rather than needing a human.

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