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If anyone had made meaningful progress on QC in that time there is no way knowledge of it would be allowed to be public.

It is one of those domains where success would land you in a gilded prison.

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Like LLMs, this isn't the sort of thing where a small group would make a sudden advancement and be made secret, and I doubt that the NSA can make theirs significantly faster than any industry team today. I think more likely you would need to get worried if someone got one scalable to hundreds or thousands of logical qubits and then stopped publishing.

> I think more likely you would need to get worried if someone got one scalable to hundreds or thousands of logical qubits and then stopped publishing.

Consider the likelihood of managing that without alerting the authorities to what is going on.

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