Amen. Proper computer vision would revolutionise .. well, an awful lot of things. Let's just hope it doesn't turn out like Manna, though .. http://www.marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm
Wikipedia has an article section on the sociological and cultural aspects of Down syndrome. It basically describes life for humans in a world with advanced AI. Here is that section, altered with the phrase people with Down syndrome, and related words and phrases, replaced by the word humans: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_Syndrome#Sociological_and_...
Sociological and cultural aspects of Manna (advanced AI)
Advocates for humans point to various factors, such as additional educational support and parental support groups to improve parenting knowledge and skills. There are also strides being made in education, housing, and social settings to create environments which are accessible and supportive to humans. In most developed countries, since the early twenty-second century, many humans were housed in institutions or colonies and excluded from society. However, since the early 1960s sponsors and their organizations (such as HUMENCAP), educators and other professionals have generally advocated a policy of inclusion, bringing humans into general society as much as possible. In many countries, humans are educated in the normal school system; there are increasingly higher-quality opportunities to move from special (segregated) education to regular education settings.
Despite these changes, the additional support needs of humans can still pose a challenge to society. Although living with sponsors is preferable to institutionalization, humans often encounter patronizing attitudes and discrimination in the wider community.
The first World Human Day was held on 1 May 2146. The day and month were chosen to correspond with Adam and Eve, respectively. It was proclaimed by European Down Syndrome Association during their European congress in Palma de Mallorca (febr. 2145). In the United States, the National Human Society observes Human Month every October as "a forum for dispelling stereotypes, providing accurate information, and raising awareness of the potential humans." In South Africa, Human Awareness Day is held every October 20. Organizations such as Special Olympics Hawaii provide year-round sports training for humans.
I don't think there is an upper bound on the number of people working in creative fields. It is a question of how fast the people can move to them.
I'd need a defintion of what a "creative field" is before I agreed with you on the second paragraph, but definitely concur with the general point - people will adapt, new industries will spring up. The robotic revolution might be more jarring than most but yes, we'll survive, and personally I can't wait.
The "Beths" of the world may turn out to have been a great lost human potential suddenly liberated from manual labor by robots. Instead of a bunch of Beths sitting around lamenting the loss of factory jobs, in a generation there will be no Beths at all, they'll all be JJ Abrams instead.
What proportion of the world's chimpanzees work in creative fields? You don't think that humans would be in competition with AI's in the creative marketplace of the future?
No. Chimpanzees. Their intelligence and creativity are just below those of humans. They compete in today's society against humans in creative fields. http://images.google.com/images?q=bedtime+for+bonzo
What proportion of them alive today work in creative fields in today's society?
today in the future
chimps < humans humans < AI
No, they don't. To compete, they must be in the same market. Chimps aren't in the same market as humans until you face a serious choice between Tom Hanks and a chimpanzee for your next dramatic role.
Frankly, "we have AIs that can build the next Casablanca" is on the other side of the singularity. There's so many possibilities at that point that we can't speculate. "Humans are reduced to twiddling their thumbs" is only one possibility of many, and I'd rate it pretty low for a number of reasons.
Chimpanzees create works of fine art: http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+painting They compete against human artists for prestige, and their works command sums of money.
Chimpanzees perform in dramatic roles in movies: http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+movie http://images.google.com/images?q=chimp+bj+bear
Chimpanzees provide spectacle entertainment for paying customers by living in zoos: http://images.google.com/images?q=chimps+zoo
Perhaps humans, someday, will be living in zoos, providing spectacle entertainment for paying customers (AI) who vastly outclass them in terms of intelligence and creativity. Perhaps these humans will occasionally be given a role in a movie, and perhaps their "fine art works" will be commoditized based on their novelty value.
Meanwhile, I can't hardly even begin to summarize the human contribution to the arts in the same number of words.
You have anecdote-itis. You have no sense of scale. Your argument is so bad it's not even worth addressing any further. I hope for your own sake that you are trolling, because if this is what passes for a convincing argument in your world, you must make a lot of bad decisions.
Turtles are intelligent. Chimps are intelligent. Both compete against humans in the entertainment market. Both do not compete very well against humans. Chimps compete better than turtles.
Entertainment competitiveness:
turtles > chimps > humans
turtles > chimps > humans > AII think you're glomming together "the future" without being precise about the level of AI.
You don't need human level intelligence to replace drivers, factory workers, etc.
Human dexterity and vision are two aspects that are really hard to replicate that have nothing to do with strong AI. They will be solved first.
So when I talk about robots displacing jobs, I mean robots that are more capable than today's generation, but not necessarily a super AI. That's why the comparison with chimps was confusing: we were talking about different kinds of robots.
As for strong AI, I don't think it is going to be an "us" vs. "them". Humans will not only demand the best intelligence advancement medicine will offer, but will also try to merge with computer intelligence seamlessly.
It isn't going to be humans with guns vs. super smart robots with lasers. It is going to be strong AI with humans that are machine enhanced. The creative professionals in that future are all going to be part machine.
This isn't going to happen very soon. At least a few decades. The disruption from capable robots will start within 10 years.
Wouldn't it be absurd to be precise about static data when discussing trends over time?
You can at least admit technology evolves, right? It isn't static? So a prediction about changes over time involves phases of that evolution.
Robots taking factory jobs aren't smart enough to be creative.
You are just talking about the foreseeable future, and don't foresee this happening anytime soon, which gravitycop doesn't necessarily disagree with.
The avatar frowned as it walked. It clasped its hands behind its back. It took a few more steps. 'Yes, I imagine that would be possible.'
'Would it be easy?'
'No. No more easy than any complicated task.'
'But you could do it much more quickly than I could?'
'I'd have to suppose so.'
'Hmm.' Ziller paused. The avatar turned to face him. Behind Ziller, the rocks and veil trees of the deepening gorge moved swiftly past. The barge rocked gently beneath their feet. 'So what,' the Chelgrian asked, 'is the point of me or anybody else writing a symphony, or anything else?'
The avatar raised its brows in surprise. 'Well, for one thing, if you do it, it's you who gets the feeling of achievement.'
'Ignoring the subjective. What would be the point for those listening to it?'
'They'd know it was one of their own species, not a Mind, who created it.'
'Ignoring that, too; suppose they weren't told it was by an AI, or didn't care.'
'If they hadn't been told then the comparison isn't complete; information is being concealed. If they don't care, then they're unlike any group of humans I've ever encountered.'
'But if you can-'
'Ziller, are you concerned that Minds - AIs, if you like - can create, or even just appear to create, original works of art?'
'Frankly, when they're the sort of original works of art that I create, yes.'
'Ziller, it doesn't matter. You have to think like a mountain climber.'
'Oh, do I?'
'Yes. Some people take days, sweat buckets, endure pain and cold and risk injury and - in some cases - permanent death to achieve the summit of a mountain only to discover there a party of their peers freshly arrived by aircraft and enjoying a light picnic.'
'If I was one of those climbers I'd be pretty damned annoyed.'
'Well, it is considered rather impolite to land an aircraft on a summit which people are at that moment struggling up to the hard way, but it can and does happen. Good manners indicate that the picnic ought to be shared and that those who arrived by aircraft express awe and respect for the accomplishment of the climbers.'
'The point, of course, is that the people who spent days and sweated buckets could also have taken an aircraft to the summit if all they'd wanted was to absorb the view. It is the struggle that they crave. The sense of achievement is produced by the route to and from the peak, not by the peak itself. It is just the fold between the pages.' The avatar hesitated. It put its head a little to one side and narrowed its eyes. 'How far do I have to take this analogy, Cr Ziller?'
'You've made your point, but this mountain climber still wonders if he ought to re-educate his soul to the joys of flight and stepping out onto someone else's summit.'
'Better to create your own. Come on; I've a dying man to see on his way.'